♛Analysis by Ade Ola · Kings OddsUpdated 14 Nov 2026, 11:19 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Strong · fair odds 1.33
75%chance1.28odds8/10rating
Value
Fluminense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% in the price (edge +14%)
Tips by market
ResultSao Paulo to win42% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18%
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
The Serie A brings Fluminense to Sao Paulo on Friday 20 November – Estadio Do MorumBIS hosts, kick-off 01:30 WAT. Table check: Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), Fluminense 4th on 57 (in the top four). A 13-point gap separates them – two very different seasons.
Current form
Sao Paulo – last 5: DLDWW Latest result: they drew with Corinthians 0–0 (home). Home form in that spell: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Fluminense – last 5: WWLWL Latest result: they beat Vitoria 3–0 (away). Away form in that spell: 2 wins, 1 defeat in 3. 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Goals outlook
Kings Odds expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.2 Fluminense, about 2.5 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 46%, GG 56%.
Markets to consider
1X2 chances: Sao Paulo 42%, draw 22%, Fluminense 37%.
GG/NG: yes – 56% at 1.80.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 3.10 – our chance 37%, the price implies 32%.
Kings Odds tip
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals (75% chance, priced 1.28). Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Fluminense. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Sao Paulo42%fair 2.41 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Fluminense37%fair 2.73 · @3.10
2.52Expected goals
1.31Sao Paulo xG
1.21Fluminense xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.2 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win
42%
2.41
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.95
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
DLDWWL
5 Nov
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
29 Oct
@ Bahia
2–3
L
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
WWLWLL
7 Nov
@ Vitoria
3–0
W
28 Oct
vs Internacional
2–1
W
24 Oct
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
22 Oct
@ Palmeiras
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
15 Oct
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (75% chance), priced at 1.28.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Sao Paulo win 42% of the time on our model, the draw 22%, Fluminense 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Around 2.5 goals on our projection – 46% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Kings Odds predicts Sao Paulo 1–1 Fluminense. Total goals projected: 2.5.
When is Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
