Value bets today

Today's value bets in numbers

60 value bets, average odds 2.25, average edge 15% over the market. Top of the list: Poland U21 vs Norway U21 – Draw at 3.60 – we make it 55%, the price says 28%. 1 of them are draws – the result bookmakers most often underrate.

At 2.25 you need roughly 44% winners to break even. Value is a long game – judge it over hundreds of bets, not a single day.

How to stake hot picks

• Small, level stakes – 1–2% of your bank per bet.
• Play them as singles; combining them multiplies the risk.
• If the price has shortened below our fair odds, the value has gone – skip it.
• Losing runs are normal: at a 35% strike rate, five losers in a row is common.

What makes a value spot

Odds are chances in disguise: 2.50 means the bookmaker thinks roughly 40% (100 ÷ 2.50), with their margin on top. If our ratings put the same outcome at 46% or higher, the price is too generous – and backing generous prices consistently is how value betting pays over time.

Value bets are listed separately from our main predictions because they lose more often. The results record tracks both, so you can see how each performs.