Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction
Kings Odds prediction · missedHome 1–0Medium
Best tipUnder 3.5 goals78% chance · @1.22
Goals2.3 expectedOver 2.5 41% · BTTS 52%
1 · Cerro Largo1.8060% chanceX · Draw3.1026% chance2 · Progreso4.2014% chance
♛Analysis by Ade Ola · Kings OddsUpdated 13 Nov 2026, 04:49 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip · Lost ✗Under 3.5 goals
Very strong · fair odds 1.28
78%chance1.22odds9/10rating
ValueCerro Largo to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% in the price (edge +8%)
Tips by market
ResultCerro Largo to win ✗60% · @1.80
Double chanceCerro Largo or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%
Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
Fixture: Cerro Largo vs Progreso. Competition: Primera División Apertura. Kick-off: Friday 13 November, 00:00 WAT. Ground: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Table check: Cerro Largo are 15th with 9 points from 13 games (in the relegation places), Progreso 7th on 19 (in the top half).
Current form
Cerro Largo – last 5: LWLDL Latest result: they fell to Racing Montevideo 1–3 (away). A thin 0.8 goals per game – the goals have dried up.
Progreso – last 5: LWWDL Latest result: they fell to Defensor Sporting 0–2 (home). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 3. 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Form edge: Progreso, with 1.7 points per game to 0.7.
Head to head
Previous meeting (3 May 2026): Progreso 0–1 Cerro Largo.
Goals outlook
Kings Odds expected goals: Cerro Largo 1.6 – 0.7 Progreso, about 2.3 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 41%, GG 52%.
Markets to consider
- 1X2 chances: Cerro Largo 60%, draw 26%, Progreso 14%.
- Double chance option: Cerro Largo or draw – 86% at 1.17.
- GG/NG: yes – 52% at 2.00.
- Value angle: Cerro Largo to win at 1.80 – our chance 60%, the price implies 56%.
Our tip
Our pre-match tip was Under 3.5 goals (78% chance, priced 1.22). Predicted score: Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Cerro Largo60%fair 1.67 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.10
Progreso14%fair 7.22 · @4.20
2.29Expected goals
1.63Cerro Largo xG
0.66Progreso xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.6 – 0.7 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|
| Match result | Cerro Largo to win ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cerro Largo or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cerro Largo / FT Cerro Largo ✗ | 37% | 2.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.25 | – |
Recent results
Cerro Largo – last 6
LWLDLL
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LWWDLW
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
Cerro Largo vs Progreso head-to-head page →
Primera División Apertura table
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (78% chance), priced at 1.22.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Cerro Largo win 60% of the time on our model, the draw 26%, Progreso 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Around 2.3 goals on our projection – 41% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Kings Odds predicts Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso. Total goals projected: 2.3.
When is Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Cerro Largo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
