Poland: III Liga Group 4 Kick-off

Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm prediction

Sat 14 Nov 2026 xG 1.15 – 1.94
Kings Odds predictionAway 1–2Medium
Best tipChełmianka Chełm to win59% chance · @1.86
Goals3.1 expectedOver 2.5 60% · BTTS 61%
1 · Jarosław3.3026% chanceX · Draw3.5515% chance2 · Chełmianka Chełm1.8659% chance
Analysis by · Kings OddsUpdated 14 Nov 2026, 11:58 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip

Chełmianka Chełm to win

Good · fair odds 1.69

59%chance1.86odds5/10rating

Tips by market

ResultChełmianka Chełm to win59% · @1.86
Double chanceEither team to win85% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.46
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%

Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

Fixture: Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm. Competition: III Liga Group 4. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November, 13:00 WAT. Jarosław come in 12th with 18 points and Chełmianka Chełm 1st with 40 – one in the bottom half, the other top of the pile. A 22-point gap separates them – two very different seasons.

Current form

Jarosław – last 5: LDLLL Latest result: they fell to Busko-Zdroj 1–2 (away). Home form in that spell: 0 wins, 2 defeats in 3. 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded per game.

Chełmianka Chełm – last 5: WWWDW Latest result: they beat Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 (home). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 0 defeats in 3. 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets – a defence that is tough to crack.

Form edge: Chełmianka Chełm, with 2.3 points per game to 0.2.

Goals outlook

Kings Odds expected goals: Jarosław 1.1 – 1.9 Chełmianka Chełm, about 3.1 in total. An open game is on the cards – 60% for 3+ goals and 61% for both teams scoring. Both teams' recent matches have mostly gone over 2.5.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Jarosław 26%, draw 15%, Chełmianka Chełm 59%.
  • GG/NG: yes – 61% at 1.46.

Kings Odds tip

Ade Ola's call: Chełmianka Chełm to win (59% chance, priced 1.86 – longer than our fair 1.69, which makes it a value play). Predicted score: Jarosław 1–2 Chełmianka Chełm. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Jarosław26%fair 3.89 · @3.30
Draw15%fair 6.61 · @3.55
Chełmianka Chełm59%fair 1.69 · @1.86
3.08Expected goals
1.15Jarosław xG
1.94Chełmianka Chełm xG
61%Both score
60%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–36%
2–16%

From our goals model: Jarosław 1.1 – 1.9 Chełmianka Chełm expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultChełmianka Chełm to win59%1.691.86 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win85%1.181.19
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score61%1.641.46
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals81%1.231.12
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals60%1.661.51
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals62%1.621.50
Half-time resultChełmianka Chełm ahead at half-time41%2.41–
Half-time / full-timeHT Chełmianka Chełm / FT Chełmianka Chełm35%2.86–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.15–

Recent results

Jarosław – last 6

LDLLLL
8 Nov@ Busko-Zdroj1–2L
31 Octvs Czarni Połaniec2–2D
25 Oct@ Hetman Zamosc0–1L
17 Octvs KSZO 19291–3L
10 Oct@ Wisła Kraków II1–2L
3 Octvs Naprzód1–3L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Chełmianka Chełm – last 6

WWWDWD
7 Novvs Wiślanie Jaśkowice2–1W
31 Oct@ Busko-Zdroj3–0W
24 Octvs Korona Kielce II2–0W
17 Oct@ Czarni Połaniec0–0D
10 Octvs Star Starachowice2–1W
4 Oct@ Hetman Zamosc2–2D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Jarosław and Chełmianka Chełm.

Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm head-to-head page →

III Liga Group 4 table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Chełmianka Chełm161240+2040
2Czarni Połaniec17944+631
3KSZO 192916853+1329
4Hetman Zamosc16853+829
5Wisłoka Dębica17926+129
6Naprzód16844+528
7Wisła Kraków II16745+125
8Wiślanie Jaśkowice16736+624
9Star Starachowice16655+323
10Siarka Tarnobrzeg16637021
11KS Wieczysta Krakow II16547-319
12Jarosław16538+218
13Busko-Zdroj16529-1417
14Sokół Kolb.16376-416
15Korona Kielce II16439-615
16Podlasie Biała Podlaska16349-1513
17Moravia Morawica163310-1012
18Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów163310-1312

More III Liga Group 4 predictions

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?

Our tip is Chełmianka Chełm to win (59% chance), priced at 1.86.

Who will win Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?

Jarosław win 26% of the time on our model, the draw 15%, Chełmianka Chełm 59%.

How many goals will there be in Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?

Around 3.1 goals on our projection – 60% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?

Kings Odds predicts Jarosław 1–2 Chełmianka Chełm. Total goals projected: 3.1.

When is Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?

Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.