♛Analysis by Ade Ola · Kings OddsUpdated 14 Nov 2026, 11:53 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip
Leioa or draw
Very strong · fair odds 1.24
81%chance1.21odds9/10rating
Value
Leioa to win @ 1.89 – our chance 57% vs 53% in the price (edge +8%)
Tips by market
ResultLeioa to win57% · @1.89
Double chanceLeioa or draw81% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%
Leioa vs Real Sociedad III prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
The Tercera División RFEF Group 4 brings Real Sociedad III to Leioa on Sunday 15 November, kick-off 17:00 WAT. Leioa come in 1st with 22 points and Real Sociedad III 4th with 18 – one top of the pile, the other in the top four.
Current form
Leioa – last 5: WWWDW Latest result: they beat Touring 4–2 (home). Home form in that spell: 3 wins, 0 defeats in 3. They are scoring 3.5 per game, which defences will respect. 3 clean sheets – a defence that is tough to crack.
Real Sociedad III – last 5: WWDLW Latest result: they beat Erandio 4–1 (home). Away form in that spell: 2 wins, 1 defeat in 3. 2.2 goals a game – a dangerous attack right now.
Form edge: Leioa, with 2.7 points per game to 2.2.
Goals outlook
Kings Odds expected goals: Leioa 2.0 – 1.1 Real Sociedad III, about 3.1 in total. An open game is on the cards – 55% for 3+ goals and 62% for both teams scoring. Both teams' recent matches have mostly gone over 2.5.
Markets to consider
1X2 chances: Leioa 57%, draw 24%, Real Sociedad III 19%.
Double chance option: Leioa or draw – 81% at 1.21.
GG/NG: yes – 62% at 1.67.
Value angle: Leioa to win at 1.89 – our chance 57%, the price implies 53%.
Kings Odds tip
Ade Ola's call: Leioa or draw (81% chance, priced 1.21). Predicted score: Leioa 1–1 Real Sociedad III. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Leioa57%fair 1.76 · @1.89
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.32
Real Sociedad III19%fair 5.15 · @3.42
3.09Expected goals
1.99Leioa xG
1.10Real Sociedad III xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Leioa 2.0 – 1.1 Real Sociedad III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leioa to win
57%
1.76
1.89 ▲
Double chance
Leioa or draw
81%
1.24
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.62
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.23
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.80
1.79
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.32
Half-time result
Leioa ahead at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leioa / FT Leioa
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Leioa – last 6
WWWDWW
7 Nov
vs Touring
4–2
W
31 Oct
@ Erandio
3–2
W
24 Oct
vs Sodupe
3–0
W
17 Oct
@ Deportivo Alavés III
2–2
D
10 Oct
vs Aurrerá Vitoria
4–0
W
4 Oct
@ Amurrio Club
5–0
W
3.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Real Sociedad III – last 6
WWDLWW
7 Nov
vs Erandio
4–1
W
31 Oct
@ Sodupe
3–0
W
25 Oct
vs Deportivo Alavés III
2–2
D
17 Oct
@ Aurrerá Vitoria
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs Amurrio Club
1–0
W
4 Oct
@ Eibar III
3–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leioa and Real Sociedad III.
What is the prediction for Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Our tip is Leioa or draw (81% chance), priced at 1.21.
Who will win Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Leioa win 57% of the time on our model, the draw 24%, Real Sociedad III 19%.
How many goals will there be in Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Around 3.1 goals on our projection – 55% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Kings Odds predicts Leioa 1–1 Real Sociedad III. Total goals projected: 3.1.
When is Leioa vs Real Sociedad III?
Leioa vs Real Sociedad III (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
