♛Analysis by Ade Ola · Kings OddsUpdated 15 Nov 2026, 16:48 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Strong · fair odds 1.37
73%chance1.24odds8/10rating
Value
Guarnizo to win @ 3.52 – our chance 36% vs 28% in the price (edge +26%)
Tips by market
ResultCastro to win47% · @1.93
Double chanceEither team to win83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%
Castro vs Guarnizo prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
Guarnizo are on the road in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 15 November, visiting Castro at 17:00 WAT. Castro come in 13th with 8 points and Guarnizo 14th with 8 – one in the bottom half, the other in the bottom half. Level on points – three points here could swing the table.
Current form
Castro – last 5: LLLWL Latest result: they fell to Vimenor 0–3 (away). Home form in that spell: 1 win, 2 defeats in 3. 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
Guarnizo – last 5: LLWLD Latest result: they fell to Revilla 0–3 (home). Away form in that spell: 0 wins, 2 defeats in 3. A thin 0.8 goals per game – the goals have dried up.
Goals outlook
Kings Odds expected goals: Castro 1.4 – 1.2 Guarnizo, about 2.6 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 48%, GG 51%.
Markets to consider
1X2 chances: Castro 47%, draw 17%, Guarnizo 36%.
GG/NG: yes – 51% at 1.78.
Value angle: Guarnizo to win at 3.52 – our chance 36%, the price implies 28%.
Kings Odds tip
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals (73% chance, priced 1.24). Predicted score: Castro 1–1 Guarnizo. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Castro47%fair 2.11 · @1.93
Draw17%fair 5.89 · @3.12
Guarnizo36%fair 2.80 · @3.52
2.61Expected goals
1.43Castro xG
1.18Guarnizo xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Castro 1.4 – 1.2 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castro to win
47%
2.11
1.93
Double chance
Either team to win
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.98
1.78
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.24
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castro / FT Castro
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.27
–
Recent results
Castro – last 6
LLLWLL
8 Nov
@ Vimenor
0–3
L
31 Oct
vs Barquereño
0–1
L
25 Oct
@ Naval Reinosa
1–2
L
17 Oct
vs Escobedo
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Atlético Albericia
2–4
L
4 Oct
vs Tropezón
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Guarnizo – last 6
LLWLDD
7 Nov
vs Revilla
0–3
L
31 Oct
@ Solares
0–1
L
25 Oct
vs Selaya
1–0
W
17 Oct
@ Laredo
2–4
L
10 Oct
vs Bezana
1–1
D
3 Oct
@ Torina
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castro and Guarnizo.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (73% chance), priced at 1.24.
Who will win Castro vs Guarnizo?
Castro win 47% of the time on our model, the draw 17%, Guarnizo 36%.
How many goals will there be in Castro vs Guarnizo?
Around 2.6 goals on our projection – 48% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Castro vs Guarnizo?
Kings Odds predicts Castro 1–1 Guarnizo. Total goals projected: 2.6.
When is Castro vs Guarnizo?
Castro vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
