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Europe: UEFA Nations League· Roi Baudouin Kick-off

Belgium vs Italy prediction

BelgiumWLWLW
Sun 15 Nov 2026 xG 1.51 – 1.47
ItalyWWDWL
Kings Odds predictionHome 2–1Small
Best tipBoth teams to score64% chance · @1.53
Goals3.0 expectedOver 2.5 57% · BTTS 64%
1 · Belgium2.1841% chanceX · Draw3.7619% chance2 · Italy2.7840% chance
Analysis by · Kings OddsUpdated 13 Nov 2026, 08:06 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip

Both teams to score

Good · fair odds 1.57

64%chance1.53odds6/10rating
Value

Italy to win @ 2.78 – our chance 40% vs 36% in the price (edge +10%)

Tips by market

ResultBelgium to win41% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80%
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%

Belgium vs Italy prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

Belgium v Italy, UEFA Nations League – Sunday 15 November, 20:45 WAT at Roi Baudouin. Here is how the Kings Odds model sees it. Table check: Belgium are 3rd with 9 points from 5 games, Italy 1st on 10. A gap of just 1 point – three points here could swing the table.

Current form

Belgium – last 5: WLWLW Latest result: they beat Türkiye 2–1 (away). 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game.

Italy – last 5: WWDWL Latest result: they beat France 3–1 (home). Away form in that spell: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. They are scoring 2.0 per game, which defences will respect.

Form edge: Italy, with 2.2 points per game to 1.5.

Head to head

Previous meeting (25 Sep 2026): Italy 0–2 Belgium.

Goals outlook

Kings Odds expected goals: Belgium 1.5 – 1.5 Italy, about 3.0 in total. Goals look likely: over 2.5 at 57%, GG at 64%.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Belgium 41%, draw 19%, Italy 40%.
  • GG/NG: yes – 64% at 1.53.
  • Value angle: Italy to win at 2.78 – our chance 40%, the price implies 36%.

Kings Odds tip

Our pick: Both teams to score (64% chance, priced 1.53). Predicted score: Belgium 1–1 Italy. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Belgium41%fair 2.41 · @2.18
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.76
Italy40%fair 2.52 · @2.78
2.99Expected goals
1.51Belgium xG
1.47Italy xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%

From our goals model: Belgium 1.5 – 1.5 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBelgium to win41%2.412.18
Double chanceEither team to win81%1.231.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score64%1.571.53
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals80%1.25–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals57%1.741.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals65%1.541.40
Half-time resultLevel at half-time40%2.51–
Half-time / full-timeHT Belgium / FT Belgium23%4.39–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.75–

Recent results

Belgium – last 6

WLWLWL
12 Nov@ Türkiye2–1W
5 Oct@ France1–4L
2 Octvs Türkiye3–0W
28 Sepvs France0–1L
25 Sep@ Italy2–0W
10 Jul@ Spain1–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Italy – last 6

WWDWLW
12 Novvs France3–1W
5 Octvs Türkiye3–1W
2 Oct@ France1–1D
28 Sep@ Türkiye4–1W
25 Sepvs Belgium0–2L
7 Jun@ Greece1–0W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

25 Sep 2026Italy v Belgium0–2
Belgium vs Italy head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Italy5311+510
2France5311+310
3Belgium5302+29
4Türkiye5005-100

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
BelarusvAlbania Medium Away 0–1 U3.5@1.22 3.973.462.04
FrancevTürkiye Large Home 2–0 O2.5@1.32 1.117.7015.00
SpainvEngland Large Home 2–1 1@1.60 1.604.565.36
CroatiavCzech Republic Large Home 2–0 GG@1.87 1.334.937.60

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Belgium vs Italy?

Our tip is Both teams to score (64% chance), priced at 1.53.

Who will win Belgium vs Italy?

Belgium win 41% of the time on our model, the draw 19%, Italy 40%.

How many goals will there be in Belgium vs Italy?

Around 3.0 goals on our projection – 57% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Italy?

Kings Odds predicts Belgium 1–1 Italy. Total goals projected: 3.0.

When is Belgium vs Italy?

Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Roi Baudouin.

Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.