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Uruguay: Primera División Apertura· Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel Kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro prediction

Deportivo MaldonadoDWWLW
Sat 14 Nov 2026 xG 1.74 – 0.79
CerroLLDWL
Kings Odds predictionHome 1–0Medium
Best tipUnder 3.5 goals74% chance · @1.30
Goals2.5 expectedOver 2.5 48% · BTTS 55%
1 · Deportivo Maldonado1.5760% chanceX · Draw3.8023% chance2 · Cerro4.7517% chance
Analysis by · Kings OddsUpdated 13 Nov 2026, 05:33 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip

Under 3.5 goals

Strong · fair odds 1.36

74%chance1.30odds8/10rating
Value

Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% in the price (edge +10%)

Tips by market

ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win60% · @1.57
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

The Primera División Apertura brings Cerro to Deportivo Maldonado on Saturday 14 November – Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel hosts, kick-off 20:30 WAT. Deportivo Maldonado come in 4th with 22 points and Cerro 9th with 18 – one in the top four, the other in the bottom half.

Current form

Deportivo Maldonado – last 5: DWWLW Latest result: they drew with Albion FC 0–0 (away). Home form in that spell: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. They are scoring 2.2 per game, which defences will respect.

Cerro – last 5: LLDWL Latest result: they fell to Central Espanol 1–2 (home). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 3. 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded per game.

Form edge: Deportivo Maldonado, with 1.8 points per game to 0.8.

Head to head

Previous meeting (24 Sep 2026): Cerro 1–2 Deportivo Maldonado.

Goals outlook

Kings Odds expected goals: Deportivo Maldonado 1.7 – 0.8 Cerro, about 2.5 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 48%, GG 55%.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Deportivo Maldonado 60%, draw 23%, Cerro 17%.
  • Double chance option: Deportivo Maldonado or draw – 83% at 1.17.
  • GG/NG: yes – 55% at 2.00.
  • Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – our chance 55%, the price implies 50%.

Kings Odds tip

Our pick: Under 3.5 goals (74% chance, priced 1.30). Predicted score: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Deportivo Maldonado60%fair 1.66 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.80
Cerro17%fair 5.88 · @4.75
2.53Expected goals
1.74Deportivo Maldonado xG
0.79Cerro xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.7 – 0.8 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDeportivo Maldonado to win60%1.661.57
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw83%1.201.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score55%1.812.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals73%1.381.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals52%1.911.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals74%1.361.30
Half-time resultDeportivo Maldonado ahead at half-time42%2.36–
Half-time / full-timeHT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado37%2.68–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%10.49–

Recent results

Deportivo Maldonado – last 6

DWWLWD
3 Nov@ Albion FC0–0D
29 Oct@ Porongos4–0W
24 Octvs Danubio2–1W
20 Oct@ Club Nacional2–3L
15 Octvs Albion FC4–1W
10 Octvs Liverpool Montevideo1–1D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Cerro – last 6

LLDWLD
31 Octvs Central Espanol1–2L
25 Oct@ Atletico Torque1–3L
16 Octvs Cerro Largo1–1D
10 Oct@ Defensor Sporting3–2W
4 Octvs Wanderers0–2L
27 Sep@ Juventud0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Sep 2026Cerro v Deportivo Maldonado1–2
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro head-to-head page →

Primera División Apertura table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol351997+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado351898+2263
3Atletico Torque3519610+1863
4Club Nacional3519412+1161
5Racing Montevideo3516127+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo3516118+1659
7Wanderers3514912-251
8Albion FC3513814+347
9Juventud35101114-641
10Central Espanol3511816-1341
11Defensor Sporting3591214-839
12Cerro Largo3591016-837
13Boston River3510718-1337
14Cerro3510718-2437
15Progreso3510520-1835
16Danubio3561415-1632

More Primera División Apertura predictions

League hub
Central EspanolvBoston River Small Away 0–1 U3.5@1.30 2.603.102.50

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (74% chance), priced at 1.30.

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Deportivo Maldonado win 60% of the time on our model, the draw 23%, Cerro 17%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Around 2.5 goals on our projection – 48% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Kings Odds predicts Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro. Total goals projected: 2.5.

When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel.

Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.