Italy vs France prediction
Kings Odds prediction · missedAway 1–2Small
Best tipUnder 3.5 goals65% chance · @1.50
Goals2.9 expectedOver 2.5 56% · BTTS 62%
1 · Italy3.5032% chanceX · Draw3.6020% chance2 · France2.0048% chance
♛Analysis by Ade Ola · Kings OddsUpdated 13 Nov 2026, 06:26 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip · Lost ✗Under 3.5 goals
Good · fair odds 1.54
65%chance1.50odds6/10rating
ValueItaly to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% in the price (edge +13%)
Tips by market
ResultFrance to win ✗48% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%
Italy vs France prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
Italy v France, UEFA Nations League – Thursday 12 November, 20:45 WAT at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Here is how the Kings Odds model sees it. Italy come in 2nd with 7 points and France 1st with 10. A gap of just 3 points – three points here could swing the table.
Current form
Italy – last 5: WDWLW Latest result: they beat Türkiye 3–1 (home). 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
France – last 5: WDWWL Latest result: they beat Belgium 4–1 (home). 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
Previous meeting (2 Oct 2026): France 1–1 Italy.
Goals outlook
Kings Odds expected goals: Italy 1.3 – 1.6 France, about 2.9 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 56%, GG 62%.
Markets to consider
- 1X2 chances: Italy 32%, draw 20%, France 48%.
- GG/NG: yes – 62% at 1.62.
- Value angle: Italy to win at 3.50 – our chance 32%, the price implies 29%.
Our tip
Our pre-match tip was Under 3.5 goals (65% chance, priced 1.50). Predicted score: Italy 1–1 France. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Italy32%fair 3.10 · @3.50
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.60
France48%fair 2.10 · @2.00
2.89Expected goals
1.27Italy xG
1.62France xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Italy 1.3 – 1.6 France expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|
| Match result | France to win ✗ | 48% | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 40% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT France / FT France ✗ | 27% | 3.66 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.81 | – |
Recent results
Italy – last 6
WDWLWW
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
France – last 6
WDWWLL
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
Italy vs France head-to-head page →
UEFA Nations League table
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Italy vs France?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (65% chance), priced at 1.50.
Who will win Italy vs France?
Italy win 32% of the time on our model, the draw 20%, France 48%.
How many goals will there be in Italy vs France?
Around 2.9 goals on our projection – 56% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Italy vs France?
Kings Odds predicts Italy 1–1 France. Total goals projected: 2.9.
When is Italy vs France?
Italy vs France (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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