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Poland vs Sweden prediction

PolandLWLDD
Tue 17 Nov 2026 xG 1.36 – 1.47
SwedenWDWWL
Kings Odds predictionAway 1–2Small
Best tipBoth teams to score64% chance · @1.52
Goals2.8 expectedOver 2.5 56% · BTTS 64%
1 · Poland2.2838% chanceX · Draw3.7419% chance2 · Sweden2.5943% chance
Analysis by · Kings OddsUpdated 13 Nov 2026, 04:36 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip

Both teams to score

Good · fair odds 1.57

64%chance1.52odds6/10rating
Value

Sweden to win @ 2.59 – our chance 43% vs 39% in the price (edge +11%)

Tips by market

ResultSweden to win43% · @2.59
Double chanceEither team to win81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score64% · @1.52
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78%
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%

Poland vs Sweden prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

Sweden are on the road in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 17 November, visiting Poland at 20:45 WAT. Table check: Poland are 3rd with 4 points from 4 games, Sweden 1st on 10.

Current form

Poland – last 5: LWLDD Latest result: they fell to Bosnia & Herzegovina 0–1 (away). Home form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 4. 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game.

Sweden – last 5: WDWWL Latest result: they beat Romania 1–0 (away). Away form in that spell: 1 win, 1 defeat in 4. 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Form edge: Sweden, with 1.8 points per game to 0.8.

Head to head

Previous meeting (28 Sep 2026): Sweden 3–1 Poland. Head-to-head over 2 games: Poland 0, Sweden 2, draws 0 – 4.5 goals per game, GG in 2.

Goals outlook

Kings Odds expected goals: Poland 1.4 – 1.5 Sweden, about 2.8 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 56%, GG 64%.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Poland 38%, draw 19%, Sweden 43%.
  • GG/NG: yes – 64% at 1.52.
  • Value angle: Sweden to win at 2.59 – our chance 43%, the price implies 39%.

Kings Odds tip

Kings Odds tip: Both teams to score (64% chance, priced 1.52). Predicted score: Poland 1–1 Sweden. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Poland38%fair 2.63 · @2.28
Draw19%fair 5.30 · @3.74
Sweden43%fair 2.32 · @2.59
2.84Expected goals
1.36Poland xG
1.47Sweden xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%

From our goals model: Poland 1.4 – 1.5 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSweden to win43%2.322.59 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win81%1.231.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score64%1.571.52
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals78%1.29–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals56%1.801.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals67%1.501.40
Half-time resultLevel at half-time41%2.44–
Half-time / full-timeHT Sweden / FT Sweden23%4.26–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%11.53–

Recent results

Poland – last 6

LWLDDL
5 Oct@ Bosnia & Herzegovina0–1L
2 Octvs Romania6–0W
28 Sep@ Sweden1–3L
25 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina0–0D
3 Junvs Nigeria2–2D
31 Mayvs Ukraine0–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Sweden – last 6

WDWWLD
5 Oct@ Romania1–0W
2 Oct@ Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1D
28 Sepvs Poland3–1W
25 Sepvs Romania2–1W
30 Jun@ France0–3L
26 Jun@ Japan1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Sep 2026Sweden v Poland3–1
31 Mar 2026Sweden v Poland3–2
Poland vs Sweden head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sweden4310+410
2Bosnia & Herzegovina4220+38
3Poland4112+34
4Romania4004-100

More UEFA Nations League predictions

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WalesvPortugal Large Away 0–2 GG@1.68 8.155.591.28
DenmarkvNorway Small Home 2–1 GG@1.42 2.393.922.39
UkrainevGeorgia Small Home 1–0 U3.5@1.26 2.393.492.58
HungaryvNorthern Ireland Medium Home 1–0 U2.5@1.52 1.833.384.11
IsraelvAustria Medium Away 0–1 2@1.65 4.264.111.65
Rep. Of IrelandvKosovo Large Home 1–0 1@1.87 1.873.393.92
Bosnia & HerzegovinavRomania Medium Home 1–0 O1.5@1.25 1.723.714.27

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Poland vs Sweden?

Our tip is Both teams to score (64% chance), priced at 1.52.

Who will win Poland vs Sweden?

Poland win 38% of the time on our model, the draw 19%, Sweden 43%.

How many goals will there be in Poland vs Sweden?

Around 2.8 goals on our projection – 56% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Poland vs Sweden?

Kings Odds predicts Poland 1–1 Sweden. Total goals projected: 2.8.

When is Poland vs Sweden?

Poland vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.