♛Analysis by Ade Ola · Kings OddsUpdated 13 Nov 2026, 08:57 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Strong · fair odds 1.35
74%chance1.21odds8/10rating
Value
Farense to win @ 3.44 – our chance 33% vs 29% in the price (edge +13%)
Tips by market
ResultTondela to win46% · @2.03
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%
Tondela vs Farense prediction, form & predicted score
The fixture
Farense are on the road in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 15 November, visiting Tondela (Estádio João Cardoso) at 12:00 WAT. Tondela come in 7th with 16 points and Farense 8th with 15 – one in the top half, the other in the top half. A gap of just 1 point – three points here could swing the table.
Current form
Tondela – last 5: DWLDW Latest result: they drew with Sporting CP B 1–1 (away). Home form in that spell: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
Farense – last 5: LDLWW Latest result: they fell to Benfica B 2–3 (home). They are scoring 2.2 per game, which defences will respect.
Goals outlook
Kings Odds expected goals: Tondela 1.4 – 1.2 Farense, about 2.6 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 47%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have mostly gone over 2.5.
Markets to consider
1X2 chances: Tondela 46%, draw 21%, Farense 33%.
GG/NG: yes – 51% at 1.83.
Value angle: Farense to win at 3.44 – our chance 33%, the price implies 29%.
Kings Odds tip
Ade Ola's call: Under 3.5 goals (74% chance, priced 1.21). Predicted score: Tondela 1–1 Farense. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.
Result chances
Tondela46%fair 2.18 · @2.03
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.30
Farense33%fair 3.04 · @3.44
2.59Expected goals
1.43Tondela xG
1.16Farense xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.4 – 1.2 Farense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win
46%
2.18
2.03
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.21
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.22
–
Recent results
Tondela – last 6
DWLDWW
8 Nov
@ Sporting CP B
1–1
D
1 Nov
vs Felgueiras 1932
3–2
W
25 Oct
@ AVS
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Alverca
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Torreense
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Imortal Albufeira
5–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Farense – last 6
LDLWWW
8 Nov
vs Benfica B
2–3
L
1 Nov
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
24 Oct
vs Penafiel
1–4
L
17 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Feirense
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Chaves
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Farense.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals (74% chance), priced at 1.21.
Who will win Tondela vs Farense?
Tondela win 46% of the time on our model, the draw 21%, Farense 33%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Farense?
Around 2.6 goals on our projection – 47% for over 2.5 and 51% for both teams to score.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Farense?
Kings Odds predicts Tondela 1–1 Farense. Total goals projected: 2.6.
When is Tondela vs Farense?
Tondela vs Farense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
