Italy: Serie D Girone D· Carlo Speroni Kick-off

Pro Patria vs Castellanzese prediction

Sun 15 Nov 2026 xG 1.87 – 0.60
Kings Odds predictionHome 1–0Large
Best tipPro Patria to win68% chance · @1.60
Goals2.5 expectedOver 2.5 46% · BTTS 49%
1 · Pro Patria1.6068% chanceX · Draw3.4420% chance2 · Castellanzese4.8512% chance
Analysis by · Kings OddsUpdated 15 Nov 2026, 09:11 WAT · Every tip graded on our track record
Our tip

Pro Patria to win

Strong · fair odds 1.46

68%chance1.60odds7/10rating

Tips by market

ResultPro Patria to win68% · @1.60
Double chancePro Patria or draw88% · @1.09
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.76
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016%

Pro Patria vs Castellanzese prediction, form & predicted score

The fixture

Castellanzese are on the road in the Serie D Girone D on Sunday 15 November, visiting Pro Patria (Carlo Speroni) at 14:30 WAT. Pro Patria come in 3rd with 21 points and Castellanzese 4th with 19 – one in the top four, the other in the top four. A gap of just 2 points – three points here could swing the table.

Current form

Pro Patria – last 5: DLDDW Latest result: they drew with Pistoiese 0–0 (home). Home form in that spell: 1 win, 0 defeats in 3. A thin 0.8 goals per game – the goals have dried up.

Castellanzese – last 5: LLDWW Latest result: they fell to USD Casatese 0–1 (home). Away form in that spell: 2 wins, 1 defeat in 3. 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Goals outlook

Kings Odds expected goals: Pro Patria 1.9 – 0.6 Castellanzese, about 2.5 in total. Goals outlook is balanced: over 2.5 46%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Markets to consider

  • 1X2 chances: Pro Patria 68%, draw 20%, Castellanzese 12%.
  • GG/NG: no – 51% at 1.76.

Kings Odds tip

Ade Ola's call: Pro Patria to win (68% chance, priced 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.46, which makes it a value play). Predicted score: Pro Patria 1–0 Castellanzese. Graded on the 90-minute score. A tip is a probability, not a promise – 18+, bet responsibly.

Result chances

Pro Patria68%fair 1.46 · @1.60
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.44
Castellanzese12%fair 8.67 · @4.85
2.47Expected goals
1.87Pro Patria xG
0.60Castellanzese xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–015%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%

From our goals model: Pro Patria 1.9 – 0.6 Castellanzese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPro Patria to win68%1.461.60 ▲
Double chancePro Patria or draw88%1.131.09
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score51%1.971.76
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals71%1.411.27
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals54%1.861.75
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals74%1.341.25
Half-time resultPro Patria ahead at half-time47%2.11–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pro Patria / FT Pro Patria43%2.30–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016%6.33–

Recent results

Pro Patria – last 6

DLDDWW
8 Novvs Pistoiese0–0D
1 Nov@ Pavia0–1L
28 Oct@ Leon1–1D
25 Octvs Correggese1–1D
18 Oct@ USD Casatese2–1W
11 Octvs Sant'Angelo1–0W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Castellanzese – last 6

LLDWWW
8 Novvs USD Casatese0–1L
1 Nov@ Pistoiese2–4L
25 Octvs Varesina1–1D
18 Oct@ Correggese2–0W
11 Octvs Arconatese1–0W
4 Oct@ Sant'Angelo2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Pro Patria and Castellanzese.

Pro Patria vs Castellanzese head-to-head page →

Serie D Girone D table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Pistoiese11911+1928
2Lentigione11731+824
3Pro Patria11632+721
4Castellanzese11614+819
5USD Casatese11614+119
6Pro Sesto11533+1218
7Cittadella Vis Modena11524+317
8Solbiatese11452+217
9Sant'Angelo11434015
10Crema11434-315
11Città di Varese11353+414
12Pavia11353+314
13Correggese11335-712
14Varesina11254-211
15Coriano11236-59
16Pontedera11218-167
17Arconatese11137-156
18Oltrepò11128-195

More Serie D Girone D predictions

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?

Our tip is Pro Patria to win (68% chance), priced at 1.60.

Who will win Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?

Pro Patria win 68% of the time on our model, the draw 20%, Castellanzese 12%.

How many goals will there be in Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?

Around 2.5 goals on our projection – 46% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?

Kings Odds predicts Pro Patria 1–0 Castellanzese. Total goals projected: 2.5.

When is Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?

Pro Patria vs Castellanzese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Carlo Speroni.

Numbers from Kings Odds's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.